JOR BAYESIAN FUSION // SYSTEM REFERENCE HUB

RESEARCH CORE // MODE: TIER 1 ANALYSIS // PRIOR: 0.20 [K=0.20] // AARO-REF ALIGNED

FRAMEWORK LOGIC

The JOR Framework employs a dual-stage Bayesian pipeline that separates deterministic evidence structuring from probabilistic inference. The first stage transforms observational inputs into bounded evidentiary scores (SOP/NHP), while the second stage applies Bayesian updating to generate posterior estimates of non-human probability under uncertainty.

SOLID OBJECT PROBABILITY (SOP)

A baseline metric confirming physical reality before NHP (Non-Human Probability) analysis can commence.

SOP = (w1 * C) + (w2 * E) + (w3 * P)

BAYESIAN UPDATE FUNCTION

Updates posteriors based on AARO-aligned standards (Prior = 0.20).

P(E|H) = min(1, 1 - NHP + (K * SOP))

CALIBRATION (K): 0.20 // Prevents over-attribution under noisy sensor conditions.

SOFTWARE SUITE

VERSION HIERARCHY: v3.1 is the active PyMC inference engine. v3.0 is maintained as a baseline reference implementation for reproducibility and comparative validation. Both exist within the same JOR framework lineage.

JOR-FUSION-WEB (without PyMC)
Field Triage UI
JOR-FRAMEWORK-V3 (without PyMC)
Python Logic Core
JOR-PYMC-ENGINE Version 3.0 (with PyMC)
MCMC Scientific Engine
JOR-PYMC-ENGINE Version 3.1 (with PyMC and Collision Risk Module)
MCMC Scientific Engine
MODEL VISUALS
Graphical Result Archive

ANALYTIC WEIGHTS

Witness (C): 0.40

Env (E): 0.30

Sensor (P): 0.30

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