JOR v3
JOR Bayesian Fusion Framework
METHODOLOGY: JAMES ORION · CALIBRATION K=0.20 · AARO 2024
SYSTEM ACTIVE
IMPLEMENTATION: JAKE JAMES
Case Identification REQUIRED
◈ Before scoring, ensure all available information related to the case has been gathered — witness statements, sensor data, environmental reports, and flight observations. Where possible, source material should come from official or documented records.
Global Parameters CALIBRATION
PRIOR_NH: prior probability the object is non-human (default 0.20). CALIBRATION_K: Bayesian calibration constant per AARO 2024 standard (default 0.20). Weights C + E + P must sum to 1.0.
0.00 – 1.00
0.00 – 1.00
C
E
P
Factor C — Witness Credibility WEIGHT: 0.40
01
Base Score Entry
Enter Value Range: 0.30 – 0.85 Value out of range (0.30–0.85)
Weak
0.30 – 0.50
Single untrained civilian; anonymous; no supporting accounts
Moderate
0.55 – 0.65
2–3 civilians OR one trained observer, partial corroboration
Strong
0.70 – 0.80
Multiple trained observers OR multiple corroborating civilians
Very Strong
0.81 – 0.85
Trained personnel + multiple independent accounts + documentation
02
Modifiers
Independent written reports or time-stamped logs+0.03
Witnesses from >2 independent positions+0.02
Witness inconsistencies−0.03
Known misidentification / unreliable−0.05
◈ HARD CAPS
Single untrained civilianCAP 0.50
No trained observerCAP 0.70
Anonymous witnessCAP 0.45
FINAL C SCORE 0.30
Factor E — Environmental Conditions WEIGHT: 0.30
01
Base Score Entry
Enter Value Range: 0.30 – 0.85 Value out of range (0.30–0.85)
Weak
0.30 – 0.45
Fog, heavy cloud, night with no illumination, brief duration (<10s)
Moderate
0.50 – 0.60
Light cloud, partially obstructed view, nighttime with some illumination, moderate duration (10–30s)
Strong
0.65 – 0.85
Clear sky OR controlled environment; multiple viewing angles, long duration (>30s)
02
Modifiers
Multiple vantage points+0.03
Weather officially documented+0.02
Object >1 km away−0.03
Observation <5 seconds−0.05
◈ HARD CAPS
Heavy fogCAP 0.40
Nighttime OR Single perspectiveCAP 0.70
Daytime clear (FLOOR — enforces minimum)MIN 0.60
FINAL E SCORE 0.30
Factor P — Physical / Sensor Evidence WEIGHT: 0.30
01
Base Score Entry
Enter Value Range: 0.30 – 0.95 Value out of range (0.30–0.95)
Weak
0.30 – 0.45
No physical traces, anecdotal only
Moderate
0.50 – 0.65
One sensor type or weak trace evidence
Strong
0.70 – 0.85
Two sensor types or confirmed anomalies
Very Strong
0.86 – 0.95
Multi-sensor + physical interaction
02
Modifiers
EMP / interference / shutdown+0.05
Multi-frame imagery / long video+0.03
Independent lab analysis+0.02
Ambiguous / poor video quality−0.05
Inconsistent sensor readings−0.07
◈ HARD CAPS
No sensor dataCAP 0.55
Only videoCAP 0.75
Multi-sensor MAXCAP 0.95
FINAL P SCORE (pre-flight) 0.30
Flight Behavior Classification APPLIED TO P SCORE
Applied as a modifier to Physical Evidence. P_final is capped at 0.95.
None / Conventional
Standard flight behavior; within expected aerodynamics
+0.00
Minor Anomaly
Slightly unusual maneuvers or speed; could be explainable
+0.02
Moderate Anomaly
Clearly abnormal movement, speed, or trajectory; limited explanation
+0.04
Major Anomaly
Highly unusual or impossible maneuvers; defies conventional physics
+0.05
Posterior Output LIVE
Posterior P(NH | Evidence)
—
0.00.250.500.751.0
AWAITING INPUT
SOP (Baseline)—
NHP (Anomalous)—
P(E | NH)—
P(E | H)—
Prior NH0.20
C Score—
E Score—
P Score (final)—
Case Log 0 RECORDS
CASECEPSOPNHPPOSTTIMESTAMP
NO CASES LOGGED
JOR Bayesian Fusion Framework
VERSION 3 · METHODOLOGY: JAMES ORION · IMPLEMENTATION: JAKE JAMES · AARO 2024 CALIBRATION
◈ What Is This Framework

The James Orion Report (JOR) Bayesian Fusion Framework is a structured, evidence-based scoring system designed to support the systematic analysis of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) reports. It applies Bayesian inference to combine three independent evidence factors — Witness Credibility, Environmental Conditions, and Physical/Sensor Evidence — into a single posterior probability estimate.

The framework is calibrated to the AARO (All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office) 2024 uncertainty standards, with a default calibration constant of K=0.20 and a prior probability of 0.20 for the non-human hypothesis. These defaults reflect the current state of evidence and institutional baseline assumptions.

◈ What the Constants Mean
PRIOR_NH (0.20)
The baseline probability assigned to the non-human hypothesis before any case-specific evidence is evaluated. Set at 0.20 per AARO 2024 standards. Increasing Prior NH raises the Posterior NH result; decreasing it reflects greater skepticism and lowers the posterior.
CALIBRATION_K (0.20)
A constant that controls how strongly the baseline observation quality (SOP) offsets the likelihood of the evidence under the conventional hypothesis P(E|H). Lowering K reduces the weight given to the conventional explanation, which increases the Posterior NH. Raising K strengthens the conventional explanation sensitivity and lowers the posterior. Aligned with AARO 2024 uncertainty standards.
WEIGHT_C (0.40)
The proportional influence of Witness Credibility on both SOP and NHP scores. Higher weight increases the role of human testimony in the final posterior.
WEIGHT_E (0.30)
The proportional influence of Environmental and Observation Conditions. Reflects how much observation quality (weather, duration, vantage) shapes the evidence score. Note: the Daytime Clear hard cap for Factor E enforces a minimum floor of 0.60 rather than a ceiling, reflecting that clear daytime conditions guarantee a baseline observation quality.
WEIGHT_P (0.30)
The proportional influence of Physical and Sensor Evidence. Reflects the weight given to radar, video, physical traces, and other instrument-based data.
SOP
Solid Object Probability — the weighted composite score using the pre-flight-modifier Physical Evidence value. Represents the overall quality of the observation baseline.
NHP
Non-Human Profile score — the weighted composite score using the post-flight-modifier Physical Evidence value. Incorporates anomalous flight behavior as an additional signal before Bayesian inference is applied.
◈ Adjusting Constants & Modifiers

The Global Parameters panel allows adjustment of Prior NH, Calibration K, and the C/E/P evidence weights. These adjustments are intended for exploratory and sensitivity analysis only. Changing these values allows analysts to examine how the posterior probability responds to different prior assumptions or evidence weighting schemes — for example, testing how a more skeptical prior (lower PRIOR_NH) or a heavier weight on physical evidence affects the outcome.

For standardized, comparable case scoring, the default values should be retained. Departures from defaults should be clearly documented and justified in case notes.

◈ Important Disclaimer
⚠ DECISION SUPPORT TOOL — NOT A DECLARATION

This framework is a decision support instrument. The posterior probability output represents a mathematical estimate of how consistent the available evidence is with a non-human hypothesis, given the quality and nature of that evidence. It is not a conclusion, a finding, or a declaration of non-human or extraterrestrial origin.

A high posterior probability indicates that the observed evidence, as scored, is statistically unusual under conventional assumptions. It does not confirm the presence of non-human intelligence, extraterrestrial craft, or any specific alternative explanation. All outputs should be interpreted in the context of the broader investigative process and reviewed by qualified analysts.

This tool does not replace rigorous scientific investigation, peer review, or official reporting procedures.

OPENS AUTOMATICALLY ON FIRST VISIT · ACCESSIBLE VIA ◈ README IN HEADER